Special Report
Strength, Resiliency in Some Sectors Offset by Small or Negative Gains in Others
S&P 500 Off to Strong Start
Following a steep sell-off in the first half of 2022, the Standards & Poor 500 started 2023 with an...
Can Fed Bring Down Inflation Without Pushing Economy Into Deep Recession?
Rate Decisions
Recent Bank Failures Pressure Markets and Fed on Rate Decisions
One more rate hike and then pause? Leading economic indicators have turned deeply negative....
High Inflation, Interest Rate Hikes of 2022 Not Reflected Yet in 2023 Economic Data
Recapping a Challenging 2022
Markets faced several challenges in 2022, including high inflation, historic central bank policy, the war in Ukraine, and COVID lockdowns in...
Goods Inflation Declining, Services Rising; Federal, State Labor Markets Still Strong
Overview
The pace of economic growth continues to moderate, primarily driven by a slower pace of consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic...
Federal Reserve Fights Inflation, Walks Line Between Soft Landing, Recession
The Economy
The Drumbeat of a Recession Is Growing Louder, But It Is Probably Not Here Yet
We are sure in an odd place, economically speaking....
Economic Expansion Continues Steep Pace; Demand for Workers Exceeds Job Seekers
Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product (GDP) took a surprising decline in the first quarter of 2022, falling 1.4%. It was brought down by the...
Economic Recovery, Job Growth Faster than Previous Recessions; Inflation Robust
This Time Is Different
When conducting monetary policy, the Federal Reserve has two goals: keep inflation low and stable, and ensure maximum employment.
For most of...
Economy’s Fundamentals Remain Firm; Household/Corporate Balance Sheets Solid
Overview
Economic recoveries and expansions never go as planned. This one is no exception. It has been marred by two major COVID outbreaks, supply shortages,...
Strong Demand for Goods; Supply Lagging; Imbalance Keeps Upward Pressure on Prices
Overview
The recession is officially over. It ended more than a year ago, but it takes time for the group of economists at the National...
As Economy Lifts Off, Transitory Hiccups in Some Sectors, Inflation Factors to Watch
Overview
The parade of robust economic data continues to march onward. The data at the end of the quarter, following the February chill, has been...
