Special Report
Risks to Economic Growth Trajectory Include Federal Deficit, Asset ‘Bubble’
New Administration
What does the new administration mean for the current economic expansion?
For the second time, President Donald Trump is taking the helm of a...
Social Narratives, Reality, Economic Data and How They Mesh with Election Results
Who Should We Credit for Trump’s Big Win? Jerome Powell Of Course…
The red wave that swept Donald Trump to a second term took most...
State Economic Challenges Reflect Policies Affecting Labor Market, Housing Supply
In March of this year The Economist ran an article with the headline “California is gripped by economic problems, with no easy fix. Rising...
Data Show Positive Economic Trends; Housing, Labor Supply Shortfalls Continue
Despite the Narratives, California Is Doing OK
The U.S. economy entered 2024 at a good pace. Consumer spending continues to hum along, inflation has cooled,...
Consumer Spending, Labor Market Cool; Inflation Pattern Seems Similar to 1970s
Comparing the path of inflation during the 1970s and today, the numbers differ, but a similar pattern emerges. In both periods, inflationary pressures began building early when interest rates were low in the 1960s and 2010s, respectively.
Strength, Resiliency in Some Sectors Offset by Small or Negative Gains in Others
S&P 500 Off to Strong Start
Following a steep sell-off in the first half of 2022, the Standards & Poor 500 started 2023 with an...
Can Fed Bring Down Inflation Without Pushing Economy Into Deep Recession?
Rate Decisions
Recent Bank Failures Pressure Markets and Fed on Rate Decisions
One more rate hike and then pause? Leading economic indicators have turned deeply negative....
High Inflation, Interest Rate Hikes of 2022 Not Reflected Yet in 2023 Economic Data
Recapping a Challenging 2022
Markets faced several challenges in 2022, including high inflation, historic central bank policy, the war in Ukraine, and COVID lockdowns in...
Goods Inflation Declining, Services Rising; Federal, State Labor Markets Still Strong
Overview
The pace of economic growth continues to moderate, primarily driven by a slower pace of consumption, which accounts for about two-thirds of gross domestic...
Federal Reserve Fights Inflation, Walks Line Between Soft Landing, Recession
The Economy
The Drumbeat of a Recession Is Growing Louder, But It Is Probably Not Here Yet
We are sure in an odd place, economically speaking....
